Elder Patriot – Let’s start with the premise that one way or another there will be construction of a significant barrier along a major portion of our southern border.
If Pelosi caves (not likely) then President Trump wins by KO and no matter how the media spins things in the aftermath, all the rhetoric in the world won’t be able to change public perception.
But, what if the president moves forward on his threat to declare a national security emergency and go it alone on building the wall? That changes everything and would set in motion a series of moves and countermoves by both sides.
The view from here is Pelosi and Schumer would be wise to extract as much as they can now and give Trump, and the 63,000,000 voters who made him president, the barrier they want.
Constitutional law expert Jonathan Turley explains:
Congress expressly gave presidents the authority to declare such emergencies and act unilaterally. The 1976 National Emergencies Act gives presidents sweeping authority as well as allowance in federal regulations to declare an “immigration emergency” to deal with an “influx of aliens which either is of such magnitude or exhibits such other characteristics that effective administration of the immigration laws of the United States is beyond the existing capabilities” of immigration authorities “in the affected area or areas.” The basis for such an invocation generally includes the “likelihood of continued growth in the magnitude of the influx,” rising criminal activity, as well as high “demands on law enforcement agencies” and “other circumstances.”
Of course should the president decide to go this route, Democrats will challenge his decision in court. And, as we have seen before, they will judge shop until they find one they can count on to slap an injunction on the process.
And, as we’ve also seen in all of the previous lower court injunctions that were issued against President Trump’s Executive Orders, the Supreme Court will overturn the partisan rulings and eventually uphold the president’s authority.
Where will that leave Democrats? President Trump will get the wall and Pelosi, and her butt boy Schumer, will be left with a government still in need of funding.
That will put Trump in a commanding position to get what he wants in exchange for agreeing to forego his oft-stated opposition to approving another omnibus spending bill.
Recall when Trump signed the last one:
News conference at the White House concerning the Omnibus Spending Bill. 1:00 P.M.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2018
“I will never sign another bill like this again.”
"To prevent the omnibus situation from ever happening again, I'm calling on Congress to give me a line item veto for all government spending bills and the senate must end — they must end — the filibuster rule and get down to work," Pres. Trump says https://t.co/5GwRepDIzr pic.twitter.com/kzgnDhmxg4
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 23, 2018
At that time President Trump stated emphatically that the only reason he signed that omnibus spending bill was for national security reasons. His opponents grudgingly included a massive funding increase to rebuild the military (another campaign promise that Trump made and fulfilled) in order to make the bill acceptable to the president.
What’s changed since then? President Trump is still standing resolute on defending our country and protecting the citizenry. The Democrats are still spending uncontrollably without a budget in place. But, this time around there’s no compromise from his opponents with which to entice President Trump to abandon his promise to restore some spending sanity and budgetary order.
But Trump can build the wall without them and he knows that. He’s given Democrats (and Congressional RINO’s) a chance to get something in return but they’ve decided this is the issue they want to crush him on.
Trump will build the wall, or some similar defensive barrier, and once he does Pelosi and Schumer will have lost all leverage with which to force Trump to reopen the government.
The president will have no reason not to adopt an even more strident negotiating posture with Chuck and Nancy in demanding a return to pre-Obama budgeting and not the practice of passing bloated omnibus bills without regard to the efficacy of every dollar being spent.
Remember, in the Art of the Deal, Trump makes it clear that you should never be afraid to walk away from a deal. Schumer and Pelosi are banking on President Trump reopening the government without any concessions once the High Court rules.
But, what’s to keep Trump from getting what he wants on the border barrier and then extracting further concessions from the seditious duo?
As politicians, Pelosi and Schumer only react to optics and soundbites. If Trump gets his wall and they’re left holding their pud, all the soundbites in the world won’t override the optics or the results – severely curtailed illegal immigration, a reduction in opioid and fentanyl deaths, reduced gang violence, rising wages among America’s lowest economic demographic (Black and Brown people).
As a businessman, President Trump understands that all deals are nuanced and that winning important contractual clauses (the Wall) far outweighs contractual covenants (who writes the initial check.)
In the (not so) long run Trump, and his supporters, will have a Wall and increased revenues to our states and the federal treasury that run into $100’s of billions annually. The media will be left complaining that Mexico never actually wrote the check for the $5 billion.
That will ring especially hollow since Trump will be able to point to the increased economic output arising from more balanced trade with Mexico, greatly reduced remittances, and the reduction in the outflow of money to the drug cartels, as what he had meant all along.
The voters will realize this too.