ELDER PATRIOT – The polls released this morning show Hillary Clinton holding a 4% lead over Donald Trump. That would indicate that Mrs. Clinton should expect a larger margin of victory than Barack Obama racked up over Mitt Romney. That defies the findings elsewhere in the polls.
Barack Obama was the sitting president in 2012 and enjoyed a 20% higher intensity level among Democrat voters than Mrs. Clinton has today. On the flip side, Donald Trump enjoys a similar advantage over the intensity from Republican voters than Mr. Romney had in 2012.
Not enough proof the polls can’t be trusted? Then how about the way independents are breaking? Romney won independents by 5% in 2012. Trump has consistently polled between 8-20% higher than Mrs. Clinton among Independents.
Those manipulating the polls insist on pointing to various voter subgroups to support their findings but when the rubber meets the road if your voters show more intensity, your opponent’s supporters are less rabid, and Independents favor you by a wide margin it defies logic to believe those who claim you’ll lose by a larger margin than the candidate who enjoyed those advantages and won by that margin four years earlier.